HaiQiang is a young man in his early thirties who within a few years built amedium-sized enterprise， selling high purity cleaning and maintenance products fortheelectronicsmanufacturingindustry.ShiTouisaboutthesameage，heisasoftware entrepreneur and has only three employees， as successful but claiming thatHaiQiang is “our richest friend.” Wang LanBo (王蓝波) is an employee， 39 of age and thus quite old for this circle of friends， he married when he was 38 (“I’ve always been too busy， and， alas， you can’t meet anyone in ShenZhen”) and immediately conceived a son， he is working for a company that is developing and supporting software for trading in options for stock markets， for example， for the stock markets in HongKong， ShenZhen and ShangHai. LaoHong (老红， “old Red”， a nickname the team uses to call him) comes from Inner Mongolia， is foreman on construction sites and changes his employer like other people a fresh shirt. LaoZhang (老章) is in his mid-thirties， and together with a partner he set up a small restaurant chain in ShenZhen.
They share a love of football (having played for years， either in “Lao Niu” or “Tian Long”) and money. They have the unwavering will to become， if not rich， then at least well-off， to drive good cars and to turn money into even more money.
After football all of them will meet for a joint dinner. The discussion – depending on the current situation， unless wife， girlfriend， lover or divorce is a current topic – may even focus on the stock market. In 2007 (when all of them were still four years younger， hence some of them even below 30)， this is the hottest issue. Up to a dozen players are sitting at the round table， chatting with each other and enjoying the simple good meal and beer， and being together. And discussing about stocks.
“Recently I’ve invested in Wuhan (武汉) Iron & Steel， they’re looking forward to a frenzied boom because here in China we’re investing so much in infrastructure.” – “Bullshit， look， they’re marking time， there’s hardly any progress with them！”–“Sorry， but you haven’t got any idea， of course you mustn’t invest right now， but you should have done so last December， by January you’d had to buy latest， now their stock is already at an all time high， I’ve made a profit of 30 % since then！” –“So will you keep the stock， or will you sell？” – “Don’t know yet， but latest if the profit is 50% I’m going to sell.” – “I don’t believe in steel stocks， financial stocks are better， look at how BeiJing Capital is rushing forth！”
The only player who (albeit limited) can interpret English and back， WangQiang， is soaked in sweat. He also invested in the stock market， and so he enthusiastically participates in the debate， but LaoWei wants to get a good enough grasp of the debate， too. A difficult balancing act for the inexperienced interpreter， because the debaters don’t wait with their arguments until the interpretation is finished.
“LaoWei， have you bought any shares？” – “I have not， and I will not.” – “Why not？ Look at how we all get rich here！” – “If shares are discussed at football dinners， there will soon be a crash. I would not like to be present then.”– “But before that you can take the profits！” – “You buy mostly too late， and when you make profits， you take them too late， at least I am afraid that that was how it would turn out for me.”
Like that it went on for a whole year. Then suddenly everything fell quiet around. The benchmark ShangHai Composite Index had crossed the 6000 points mark， doubling within one year， increasing by a factor of six within the past two years， that’s enough to cause euphoria， “It will go on like that.” But toward late 2007 the decline began， only occasionally interrupted by some minor highs that immediately stir the optimism of the football friends again.
In the last quarter of 2008， which then also reaches a temporary low with the global financial crisis that was induced by the collapse of Lehman Brothers， the Index (and the courage of the football players at the round dinner table) drops to a low point， losing against the peak of the year before about two-thirds of its value. The gathering is open about the balance sheet： All of them except one have lost a lot of money， they had entered too late， got out too late (if ever)， not taken any interim profits.
Hindsight is always wiser. This is no different in China than anywhere else in the world， take for example the New Market in Germany in the late 90s of the last century. The only question is how long the cunning will last and whether during the next hype you can detach yourself from the horde of lemmings.
